Is Ukraine truly gaining the upper hand in the war against Russia?

As Ukraine supporters, we need to look at the situation honestly. The frontline is weak, especially near Pokrovsk, where Russian forces are pushing toward Myrnohrad. If they succeed, they could cut off a key supply route for Ukraine, which would be a big problem. While Russia has made smaller gains in other areas, this is the most serious. Ukraine is also still struggling with a lack of soldiers.

The recent success in Kursk and the arrival of F-16 fighter jets have given hope and boosted morale. However, it’s too early to know if these will have a big impact on the war. For now, they’re more of a psychological boost than a major military win.

Russia also has its own big problems—bad leadership, low morale, and outdated equipment. Ukrainian troops have shown incredible strength, continuing to fight in tough conditions. Russian forces don’t seem to have that same resilience. The Kursk operation showed that Russian defenses can crumble under enough pressure.

If Ukraine can fix its supply issues—both in terms of equipment and manpower—it could make big gains. But if these problems aren’t solved, Russia might take the advantage.

As with any war, the outcome depends on many factors. While we can’t control what happens on the battlefield, we can still support Ukraine in different ways. But giving unrealistic or overly positive views of the situation doesn’t help anyone.