Will a million Russians or more have to bury their children’s husbands and mourn before Putin realizes this was a mistake like Afghanistan?

I think Putin realized Ukraine was a mistake within the first week of the operation

War. War never changes

That said, it was a mistake not easy to correct. Simply retreating from Ukraine, leaving behind their best formations for all world to see and laugh at would have been the end of Russian reputation as a credible military force, the end of hopes of a Russian empire and quite likely NATO nuclear weapons within sight of Russian borders. Economic fallout would follow too, Russia would never recover from this.

If he looks back, he is lost. That is the reality Putin has been waking up to for some two an a half years now, it’s either forward to reclaim some of the glory lost in the fields of Ukraine, or a shameful end. That’s why he’s throwing everything and everyone on Ukraine in the hope of securing something, anything that will be seen as victory by future historians.

That’s the problem Ukraine and NATO face. We don’t have a way to offer him an easy way out. What Russia captured thus far doesn’t come close to justifying the enormous losses and Russians haven’t manged to accomplishing anything grander than shelling a large town into rubble and taking it by storm, suffering more losses than the town had pre-war male population. They did accomplish this a few times, but managed nothing better.

By now taking over the entire Ukraine would only just come out as about even for Russia due to all the economic damage over Ukraine and in Russia. But again, Putin can’t cut back his losses any more, so he goes forward, trying in vain not to lose even more. He’s like a gambler throwing away his mortgage, hoping, praying for a string of luck that sees his luck finally change.

It’s a death spiral, but if he breaks it he has already lost